Quarterbacks and Defense
As the NFL season opens this week, let's get back to some basics when it comes to handicapping football: You win (and cover) with quarterbacks and defense. There's really no truer adage in football. Betting lines take these factors into account, and you can understand why. The offense revolves around the play of the quarterback, the only player on offense who touches the ball every play. Quarterbacks need touch and accurate, split-second decision making all the time to keep the offense moving. They also require leadership skills, clutch ability on third and fourth downs, and even are asked to call plays or change calls instantly at the line of scrimmage based on what they see the defense doing. A quarterback needs to know the system thoroughly and the team needs confidence in his abilities. I bring this up after watching the Steelers top the Dolphins in the opener. The line movement on that game was incredible, with Pittsburgh opening as a 6-point home favorite in the summer and going down to a pick 'em. The reason for the drop was the injury to QB Ben Roethlisberger. However, this is where a good handicapper needs to use patience and intuitive abilities. While Big Ben is an important part of the Steelers, he's not EVERYTHING. Pittsburgh is, first off, a running team. This is why I looked at backup QB Charlie Batch as being reliable. He's not as good as Big Ben, but he knows the system and the team went 2-0 in 2 starts last season when Big Ben was hurt. In my analysis before the game I wrote, “But is the loss of Roethlisberger really worth 6 whole points? No. He isn't a quarterback that's put into position to win the game, only to manage it. In fact, that's the way all QBs play in this system. The Steelers have won 15 of their last 18 home games and they are completely undervalued by the public going into this game. In the past it was profitable to go against the Super Bowl winner in their opener but that's simply not the case any longer. Those teams have gone 4-0-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Miami is just 5-11 straight up on the road the last two years.” I gave out the Steelers and started the season with a nice win and cover. That is where Part II comes in: Defense! Look at the history of the Super Bowl and you find teams with great defense usually winning it all. Those Bronco teams with John Elway were strong defensively, as were the Rams in 1999 (look it up, they were not all offense). Defense was the cornerstone of the Patriots three recent titles. The No. 1 defense of Tampa Bay rolled over the Raiders and their No. 1 offense, 48-21, in the Super Bowl (as a dog, no less), and the Steelers zone-blitz and aggressive defense keyed the way to their title in February. In fact, Roethlisberger played poorly in the Super Bowl, but their great defense kept them in it. Pittsburgh's defense was fired up Thursday as they topped the Dolphins, dominating the line of scrimmage and picking off two passes as Miami tried to rally. You can make a list of several teams that have a good quarterback play and no defense the last few years (Vikings, Rams, Titans, Chiefs), and teams that have had no quarterback but good defenses (Bears, Bucs, Redskins, Ravens). But having both is a huge edge. Think about these things when examining September NFL games. Overall balance and good coaching are keys, but reliable quarterback play and strong defenses are at the top of the list of NFL success, straight up AND against the number!
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