Why Football Lines Move
When you are examining a football game that you are considering making a bet on, you will often find yourself faced with different betting lines based on the time of the week you are looking at the point spread or the Web site you are looking at. The lines are, barring injuries, set a week in advance. But most lines will see some movement throughout the week. Some games won't move at all, while other games can move by as much as a touchdown or more, especially in college ball. In the simplest sense, the line moves because bookmakers want to have the same amount of money bet on both teams in a game. Oddsmakers want to set the lines so that the games are essentially a coin flip - bettors can make a strong case for both teams. If one team is getting more action than the other, the line will be moved to make the less popular team seem more attractive to the bettor. If a bookmaker has the same amount of money bet on both sides of a game then they have no risk and they are guaranteed to make money no matter what the outcome of the game. This is because of the vigorish, also called the vig or the juice. When you bet on a point spread game you have to bet $110 to win $100 (you can often find lower vig rates online if you look around). If a game is perfectly balanced then the bookmaker makes $10 for every $220 bet regardless of the outcome. In reality, there are dozens of reasons that a line can move. The line is set by someone like the Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the company that provides lines for the majority of Nevada sportsbooks. Most Las Vegas books use those odds as a guideline then adjust them according to their customer's betting patterns. The first reason a book may change their line is if their experts have a strong opinion on the game which differs from the original line. If the line was set to make one team a favorite, but the bookmakers feel that the other team should be favored, they could move their line to try to avoid a disaster caused by heavy action on one side. The line may also be moved because of geographical location or other factors. Say, for example, that most of the bettors that use a particular bookmaker are based in Southern California. That bookmaker knows that they would see heavy action on USC regardless of the team they are playing or what the point spread is. They may move their line so that USC has to win by more points to cover in order to give themselves some more protection and to decrease the chances that they will have to pay out much more than they brought in on a game. This is referred to as "shading the line" in the sports betting industry. Certain factors that occur during the week can cause a line to change. If the star quarterback for a college team is hurt in practice and has to be replaced by an untested freshman, for example, then the line will move to compensate for that injury and the decreased likelihood of a win or a cover by the team with the injury woes. If the bookmakers didn't move the line then they would get too much action on the team without the injury and they could stand to lose a lot of money. The line will be moved at any time in the week if a disproportionate amount of money is bet on one team. A "steam move" is the name for a line move that happens as a result of a large amount of money being bet in a short period of time. Early in the week, a bookmaker can see 'smart money' bet on one side, and that can cause a steam move. That smart money can come from so-called 'wise guys' - experts that may have inside information or a strong opinion - or it can come from syndicates of bettors who combine their resources to make large bets. There is a school of thought that suggests that you should watch for these steam moves and bet on the team that is getting the smart money action. The problem is that you may already be too late if the line has already moved. If a spread started at 2.5, but was steam moved to 3.5, for example, then you could be too late. One in six NFL games is decided by 3 points (3 is called a key number in football betting because it is such an important factor in making betting decisions), so the smart money in this example would win while you would lose if you jumped in at 3.5. The line can also move because of public money, though this will usually happen closer to game time, because that is when the public usually bets. As a general rule the public likes to bet on the favorites, so a line will most often be moved to make the favorite less attractive as a result of public betting. The line is usually slower to adjust to public money than it is to smart money. This is in part because public money can be more spread out over different books and different teams and may not show as sharp of an opinion, and in part because the public opinion generally isn't respected by bookmakers as the smart money opinion is. Theoretically bookmakers work independently and can move their lines as they wish. In practice, though, line changes will happen at most books fairly quickly. The Don Best Odds Service is a real time service used by most sportsbooks that keeps track of lines and lets bookmakers know as soon as someone moves a line. If a few books move a line in a short period of time, like a few minutes, then most books will likely quickly follow unless they have a specific reason of their own not to. If the bookmakers did not move their line quickly they would risk getting a large bet because one team is more attractive at their line than it is in the rest of the market. That could be a very costly situation.
Other Football System Articles
College Football Revenge! In sports betting, revenge is a tricky angle. One the one hand, there are many times in college and pro football where a team is itching to stick it to an opponent. Last year Texas was tired of losing to Oklahoma and had a weapon like QB Vince Young to help get it done. The Longhorns crushed the Sooners 45-12 as a 12-point favorite.The Ch ...Soccer Team Strategies With the 3-4-3 System of Positional Set Up 3-4-3, Defense; 3, defenders,These three are very confident that they can handle a lone striker or two forwards. They are also reliant on a good defensive midfield.On the attack these players will play wide positions. On the defense these players will be more compact and allow the outside midfields to a ...Play Poker Online To Hone Your Skills Play Poker Online: could there be fortune at your doorstep:Poker is no longer a game that is just played on the table at home or in a casino but with new advancements in technology, this game has become a multi million dollar industry on the internet. One can play online poker and win huge cash jackpots. Online poker offers alternative ...How Poker Sites Progressed Into the Most Lucrative Deal? Less than a decade ago, gambling is seen in casinos, sports betting, horse races, scratch cards, and other types which require betting money or goods in some cases. And just a few years ago, online gambling has started to sprout everywhere internet arena is located. Today, online gambling sites are rampant and becoming an entity to whichever web ...Arizona State/Colorado Saturday NCAAF If anyone other than head coach Dirk Koetter knows the Arizona State Sun Devils football team, it’s former assistant coach, and now head coach of the Colorado Buffaloes, Bill Hawkins. Hawkins will hope that this advantage can lead to getting his new team its first win of the season.The Buffaloes are getting 11.5 points at home in Saturday ...The Secret of Field/Place Betting Pssst... Wanna know a secret?How about the secret of profiting with field/place combination bets?The field bet, when used by itself, is not a good bet. It must be used with other bets or in a progression to make it profitable for the experienced crapshooter. These seven different field numbers (2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11 and 12) can be mad ...College Football Week #10: Where Is Frank Solich? Ever wondered what happened to Frank Solich?You remember that guy: he was the coach at the University of Nebraska for six seasons. He was the loyal lieutenant who took over the Cornhuskers from Tom Osborne, proof positive that it's never a good thing to be the guy who takes over from The Guy. After compiling a 64-19 record as Nebraska's h ...Online Casinos: the Good, the Bad, the Ugly The GoodYou may have a fascination with basking in the glory of millions of dollars, a comfortable business while relaxing on your couch…wondering what is this all about? Many have found ‘online casinos’ an opportunity to make money via the electronic medium. These casinos are gaining popularity due to the spectrum of benefits they endow. ...#59 North Carolina Tar Heels Preview Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Prev ...How To Place A Bet Online Placing a bet for the first time online can be a little scary. Each gambling web site is set up a little different. Most will ask a person to register before placing a bet on any sports or playing in any of the card games. Registration is usually free and is used to maintain accurate records of who is gambling online and how many times a day or ...Casino Gambling - Keep Organized The casino is a fast paced environment where money comes and goes. Dealers move quickly and the illusion of losing money is alright. If the person is not careful, a lot can be lost.So before stepping into such an establishment, it is best to be prepared. Most people before going in set a budget of how much can be lost or won. It does not ...How to Double Your Sales Appointments in Half the Time; Part 2 In Part 1, we summarized that you may have the best service in the world and the best widget in its category. But if you can't physically get in front of your targeted business prospects on a routine basis you won’t meet your revenue objectives.And we discussed these (3) realities:• If you double your new appointments you will dou ...Defending your Blinds in Poker Some players will not let you check your bb if all other players have folded around to the dealer button or small blind. Some players often raise every time to try to steal the blinds and remain the aggressor. This strategy is especially used in short - handed games where there are only 3-5 people and the blinds come fast. The question is do you ...NL Holdem - Applying Pot Odds to Tournament Play I will make the assumption here that you all know how to calculate pot odds. If you are playing in a ring game then aside from advertising plays that is just about all you need to know when considering calling a bet that risks all your chips IF you know what the other player has got. This is of course assuming that you have plenty of money that ...Holdem Starting Hands Top starting hands should be raised and played aggressively. AA, KK, QQ, AK, JJ, AQ, these hands are most likely to be the best before the flop. By raising and eliminating other players early you reduce the risk of getting outdrawn. These hands will hold up the majority of the time against 2 or 3 opponents. So it is important to reduce the numb ...10 Fatal Poker Mistakes and How to Avoid Them Poker takes a very short time to learn but a lifetime to master.You can master poker a lot quicker when you avoid these common mistakes. These mistakes are not made by amateurs only. The experienced player gets caught doing these same silly things as well.So avoid doing the following mistakes and you will find yourself winning a lo ...The Decline Of The Local Newspaper I have recently been hearing about how our local newspapers (in the UK) are falling into decline due to a raft of competition from various alternative media sources such as the internet.I live in Birmingham and I am the type of person who loves to play and watch sports. Where I live we have a famous Saturday nights sports paper which arri ...Slot Machines Get A Facelift You may not have thought it but women and slot machines have a lot in common. If you ever go into the middle of the casino, close your eyes and just stand still for a moment you’ll know exactly what I am talking about. Next time you visit the casino, just do it and you will remember this comparison and know what you read here is the sound truth. ...Geeks and Baseball With the baseball season in full swing, it's time to remember how geeks and technology have transformed the game of baseball. Over the past three decades, the internet, medical advances, and the globalization media have fundamentally transformed how fans consume baseball and how ballplayers play America's pastime. Below is a survey of some of ...Rutgers/South Florida Friday Night College Football Rutgers may be ranked for the first time since 1976, but it won’t have a picnic Friday night in South Florida. The Bulls have had some problems sticking the ball in the end zone, but they have been very good at keeping their opponents out of it. Last week, South Florida held Kansas to just 13 points on the road. This week, the Bulls will be test ...Interview for "White Lightning Road" author Harry E. Gilleland, Jr. Reader Views is happy to have the chance to talk with author Harry E. Gilleland, Jr., who has recently published his new novel “White Lightning Road.” Harry is being interviewed by Juanita Watson, Assistant Editor of Reader Views.Juanita: Thanks for sharing your thoughts with us today, Harry. Would you please give your re ...Leave Data Recovery For Your Computer To The Experts Computers seem to run our lives. We rely on computers for our banking needs, tax preparation services, weather forecasts, contact with friends and family members, shopping, customer support, and more. If a computer crashes, it can be crippling to a business or individual.During some occasions, a computer can lose vital information. In ord ...Did 9-11 Change Everything for the Business Community For the business community 9-11 changed everything. In our company, we are in the cleaning business and after 9-11 we saw 62.6% decrease in weekend call ins for washing services at office buildings and a nearly same number of residential call ins. We believe this is partly due to adverse weather but as last years information shows it cannot be ...Tips on Installing Low Voltage Landscape Lighting Having your outdoor landscaping look beautiful both day and night can be as simple as installing low voltage lighting. Low voltage lighting is available in abundance of styles and can add emphasis to key elements of your home or garden at night, it will also make it safer on your walkways after the sun goes down. Low voltage landscape lights ar ...Texas Holdem Tournament Strategy - Sit and Go Poker Tournaments Welcome to the fourth in my Texas Holdem Strategy Series, focusing on no limit Texas Holdem poker tournament play and associated strategies. In this article, we’ll examine the "Sit and Go" tournament - the most popular online poker tournament format today.When I first started playing in Sit and Go tournaments, I was beginning to think th ...Church Into Bingo? When casino player David Edwards put down his $8, got his Powerball tickets and looked upon the god almighty, gosh, did that pay off!!! With $73.7 million in his pocket, Edwards couldn’t be filled with more gratitude towards lottery, bingo and the wonderful world of gambling!Believe it or not, to many evangelical Christians including Cath ...Number 67 Stanford Cardinal Preview Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Prev ...Post Season Posturing Baseball was bountiful for Las Vegas bookmakers in the 2006 Major League season.Now sports stores are looking to line coffers more during postseason play, which begins with two games Tuesday and continues with two more Wednesday.The Big Apple has dual postseason interests, while the Golden State has three.That means two of A ...
|
